Will Trump Reverse Californian’s Awful Voting History?

March 7, 2016 By James V. Lacy

When I speak to groups about my book, “Taxifornia,” which contains a lot of bad news about our state, I always tell listeners to nevertheless take heart.  According to the Public Policy Institute of California, 65% of voters in our heavily Democratic state still self-identify as “middle-of-the-road” or “conservative”.  For reform to occur, we just need to get the facts out, and motivate more of these voters to actually vote.  That is because our state has just a dismal voting history.  But getting these voters motivated to vote is apparently easier said then done.

According to the Secretary of State’s statistics, only about 42% of registered voters and 31% of the Golden State’s eligible voters bothered to cast a ballot in the last election, about 7.5 million people.  And that was down from the 2012 Presidential election, where 13 million voters returned their ballots, comprising about 72.3% of registered voters and about 55.4% of eligible voters.  California’s voters generally show up to vote about 8% less than other states, and in November 2014, neighboring Oregon had almost 50% more of its population vote in the election by percentage than California

When I talk to Republican groups, I offer that when voters can come to understand that the policies of the dominate liberal Democrats are contributing to our high cost of living, high taxes, overly regulated economy and high unemployment and poverty rates, that there is a chance people might change their voting habits among the center/right 65%, and help get us some victories.

Yet despite our center/right axis of sentiment, among political parties, the Republican Party has been in steady decline in registration for 25 years.  In the most recent announcement by the Secretary of State’s office, the GOP comprises about 27.6% of all voters statewide compared to 43.1% for the Democrats.  While the Democrats are also in slight decline, the GOP decline is bigger and faster, and the most favored and improving party registration in the state is “No Party Preference,” which now stands at 24% of the electorate, and which should become the second biggest “party” statewide in one or two more election cycles unless Republicans figure out a way to do something about it.

Yet there is a way for Republicans to gain momentum in the party registration.  And that is Donald J. Trump.

Donald Trump won the Massachusetts presidential primary not too long ago under interesting circumstances.  In that heavily blue state (like California) over 20,000 Democrats actually changed their party registration to Republican in order to vote for Trump for president.  Those changes in registration helped Trump to win the state with 50,000 more votes than Mitt Romney received in the same election in 2012.  Voter turnout was at its heights in Massachusetts.

According to one reputable data firm in California, there are more than 340,000 high propensity voters in our state who claim “No Party Preference” but are formerly Republicans.  Those voters will be denied the opportunity to really impact the Presidential election  this year, because they won’t be allowed to vote in the GOP primary election.  Unless!  Unless they come back to the Republican Party.  By the same token, so-called “Reagan Democrats” will not have a meaningful voice in this presidential election unless they re-register Republican, just like all those Democrats did in Massachusetts.

What better motivation is there to vote than when your vote really counts?!  California, the state of Ronald Reagan, may not be as Republican today as it once was, but it can nevertheless have a real impact on the presidential selection process with the 172 delegate it will be sending to the GOP National Convention this July in Cleveland, especially if the delegate counts, as expected, remain tight among the candidates through our June 7 primary.  Now is the time for voters who want to make an impact, to come on over to join the Republican Party, and in doing so help build a more competitive party for years to come.

 

James V. Lacy is publisher of California Political Review and is editor of “Taxifornia 2016: 14 Essays on the Future of California.”  www.amazon.com/author/james.lacy.