Jul 19, 2016
n what appears to be a confirmation of
Israel’s suspicions that the Obama administration deceived the public
regarding the Iran Nuclear Deal signed last year, a new document has
surfaced revealing that Iran can reach the bomb sooner and quicker.
Key restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program imposed under an
internationally negotiated deal will start to ease long before the
15-year accord expires, advancing Tehran’s ability to build a bomb even
before the end of the pact, according to a document obtained Monday by The Associated Press.
According to the document given to the AP by a diplomat
whose work has focused on Iran’s nuclear program for more than a decade,
and the authenticity of which was confirmed by another diplomat who
possesses the same document, Iran will be able to race to the bomb after
just 10 years – not 15 – and will be able to do so within six months –
not a year.
The Obama administration has repeatedly stressed that Iran will be
prevented from racing to the bomb for 15 years and that it would take
Iran a full year to reach nuclear capability.
This document appears to contradict what the Obama administration has been telling the public.
The confidential document is the only text linked to last year’s deal
between Iran and six foreign powers that hasn’t been made public,
although US officials say members of Congress who expressed interest
were briefed on its substance.
Both demanded anonymity because they were not authorized to share or discuss the document.
The diplomat who shared the text with the AP described it as
an add-on agreement to the nuclear deal in the form of a document
submitted by Iran to the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) outlining its plans to expand its uranium enrichment program
after the first 10 years of the nuclear deal.
But while formally separate from the bigger nuclear accord, he said
that it was in effect an integral part of that pact and had been
approved by the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany, the six
powers that negotiated the deal with Tehran.
Weapons Grade Uranium in Shorter Time
Details published earlier outline most restraints on Iran’s nuclear
program meant to reduce the threat that Tehran will turn nuclear
activities it says are peaceful to making weapons.
But although some of the constraints extend for 15 years, documents
in the public domain are short on details of what happens
with Iran’s most proliferation-prone nuclear activity — its uranium
enrichment — beyond the first 10 years of the agreement.
The document obtained by the AP fills in the gap. It says
that as of January 2027 — 11 years after the deal was implemented
— Iran will start replacing its mainstay centrifuges with thousands of
advanced machines, which it is already testing.
Centrifuges churn out uranium to levels that can range from use as
reactor fuel and for medical and research purposes to much higher levels
for the core of a nuclear warhead. From year 11 to 13, says the
document, Iran will install centrifuges up to five times as efficient as
the 5,060 machines it is now restricted to using.
Those new models will number less than those being used now, ranging
between 2,500 and 3,500, depending on their efficiency, according to the
document. But because they are more effective, they will allow Iran to
enrich at more than twice the rate it is doing now.
Components other than centrifuge numbers and efficiency also go into
the mix of how quickly a nation can make a nuclear weapon. They include
how much enriched uranium it has to work with, and restrictions on
Iran’s stockpile extend until the end of the deal, crimping its full
enrichment program.
But a comparison of outputs between the old and newer machines shows
the newer ones work at double the enrichment rate. That means they would
reduce the time Iran could make enough weapons grade uranium to six
months or less from present estimates of one year.
And that time frame could shrink even more. While the document
doesn’t say what happens with centrifuge numbers and types past year 13,
US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said that Iran will be free to install
any number of advanced centrifuges beyond that point, even though the
nuclear deal extends two additional years.
That will give Iran a huge potential boost in enrichment capacity,
including bomb making should it choose to do so. But it can be put to
use only after the deal expires.
Moniz noted that the limit on the amount of low-enriched enriched
uranium Iran will be allowed to store will remain at 300 kilograms (660
pounds) for the full 15 years, significantly below the amount needed for
further enrichment into a bomb. As well, the stockpile will remain
restricted to a level used for reactor fuel that is well below weapons
grade.
These restrictions translate into “serious constraints on … (Iran’s) nuclear program for 15 years,” Moniz said.
Obama Continues to Defend Deal
In selling the deal to skeptics, the US administration said it is
tailored to ensure that Iran would need at least 12 months to “break
out” and make enough weapons grade uranium for at least one weapon.
Moniz said the document obtained by the AP posed no contradiction to
that claim because “we made it very clear that we were focused on 10
years on the minimum one-year breakout time.”
The document also notes that Iran will greatly expand its work with
centrifuges that are even more advanced, including large-scale testing
in preparation for the deal’s expiry 15 years after its implementation
on Jan. 18.
But State Department spokesman Mark Toner said that “the prohibition
on Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon — and our ability to monitor the
peaceful nature of its nuclear program — remains in effect indefinitely.
“The breakout time does not go off a cliff nor do we believe that it would be cut in half, to six months, by year 11,” he said.
Iran insists it is not interested in nuclear weapons, and the pact is
being closely monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The
IAEA says Tehran has essentially kept to its commitments since the
agreement was implemented, a little more than six months after Iran and
the six powers finalized it on July 14, 2015.
Marking the agreement’s anniversary Thursday, President Barack Obama
said it has succeeded in rolling back Iran’s nuclear program, “avoiding
further conflict and making us safer.” But opposition from US
Republicans could increase with the revelation that Iran’s potential
breakout time would be more than halved over the last few years of the
pact.
Israel Remains Fearful of Iranian Bomb
Also opposed is Israel, which in the past has threatened to
strike Iran if it believes that Tehran is close to making a nuclear
weapon. Alluding to that possibility, David Albright, whose
Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security is a
US government go-to resource on Iran’s nuclear program, said the plan
outlined in the document “will create a great deal of instability and
possibly even lead to war, if regional tensions have not subsided.”
The bigger nuclear deal provides Iran with sanctions relief in
exchange for its nuclear constraints. But before going into recess, the
US Congress last week approved a bill to impose new sanctions for
Tehran’s continuing development and testing of ballistic missiles, a
program the White House says is meant to carry atomic warheads even if
it is not part of the nuclear agreement.
It also approved a measure that calls for prohibiting the Obama
administration from buying more of Iran’s heavy water, a key component
in certain nuclear reactors.
The White House has said removing the country’s surplus heavy water
denies Tehran access to a material that may be stored for potential
nuclear weapons production. But critics note that the purchase was made
only after Iran exceeded heavy water limits proscribed by the nuclear
deal and assert it rewarded Tehran for violating the agreement.
By: AP
By ![[NATL] Highlights From the 2016 Campaign Trail](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_u133sWadjt7xlQoW2HaRKevhumF7fhxswO0ug6NNEJ5c2BPOiQ89g1wmCW9bvD1I_g9L7GQG8UOKk7JGEBh7XnRLtJW3Rc3s6LzOkZcgpleW0yUpXHbo90wrbPyvRNUv3Ugjze6L95iH08oun8_VsodgASdtXFpSmfMt4JKAY9ppm9Az2v-J5Vf8FS=s0-d)